Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Virginia Cavaliers visit the Florida State Seminoles in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET. The matchup pairs Virginia's 3-1 season record with Florida State's 2-2; the model gives the Virginia Cavaliers the likelier result, while projecting points for both teams and a substantial margin.
What the model expects
These projections are estimates, not certainties. The model gives the Florida State Seminoles a 12% chance to win and the Virginia Cavaliers an 88% chance. Its likelier result is a Virginia Cavaliers win.
The projected score is 20.1 points for the Florida State Seminoles and 35.3 for the Virginia Cavaliers, with 55.4 points in all. The model projects the Virginia Cavaliers by 15.2 points.
Records and recent results
The Florida State Seminoles are 2-2 overall this season, with 128 points scored and 101 allowed in 4 games. The Virginia Cavaliers are 3-1, with 162 points scored and 52 allowed in 4 games; the Virginia Cavaliers have the better record.
The Florida State Seminoles beat the Central Arkansas Bears 34-7 at home on September 26, and before that lost 50-36 on the road to the Alabama Crimson Tide on September 19. That result followed a road loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Virginia Cavaliers beat the Delaware Blue Hens 42-3 at home on September 26, and before that lost 38-27 at home to the West Virginia Mountaineers on September 19. That result followed a home loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers. Both teams are coming off wins, and each arrives after a loss in its preceding game.