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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Uzbekistan 4-1 Syria: Match Analysis & Model Review

Uzbekistan 4-1 Syria in a friendly, Thursday, October 1: how the goals came and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Uzbekistan beat Syria in a friendly on Thursday, October 1, with the match ending 4-1. The scoring sequence gave Uzbekistan its half-time advantage, then a third goal soon after the restart; Syria’s reply arrived only after Uzbekistan had scored again late on. The result was a 4-1 win for Uzbekistan over Syria, with Uzbekistan the only side to lead.

How it unfolded

S. Esanov opened the scoring for Uzbekistan in the 27th minute, making it 1-0. A. Mozgovoy added a goal in the 45th minute, and Uzbekistan went into the interval ahead 2-0. The goal just before the break left Syria facing a deficit as the sides returned for the second half.

K. Norchaev scored in the 48th minute to make it 3-0, extending Uzbekistan’s advantage shortly after the break. Uzbekistan’s next goal came in the 90th minute, taking the score to 4-0 and giving it its maximum margin for the first time. Syria then scored in the 90th minute (+3); that made it 4-1, but did not change the outcome. The lead moved in one direction throughout, and Uzbekistan’s maximum advantage was a four-goal lead at 4-0.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Uzbekistan scored four goals, Syria scored one goal, and the match contained five goals overall. The scoreline shows Uzbekistan building an advantage and sustaining it through the match, while Syria’s late goal reduced the final margin without overturning the result. The half-time score and the goal soon after the restart mark the key phases: Uzbekistan had established its lead before the break, then extended it early in the second half.

Uzbekistan’s goal in the 90th minute opened up its largest margin of the match. Syria found the net in added time, reducing that margin before the final whistle. The sequence left Uzbekistan with the win and Syria with a late consolation.

Standout performers

S. Esanov, A. Mozgovoy and K. Norchaev each scored for Uzbekistan, with their goals coming at different stages of the match. S. Esanov put the side ahead, A. Mozgovoy added to the score before the interval, and K. Norchaev scored after half-time. Their goals formed the opening stretch of Uzbekistan’s scoring sequence, carrying the side from the opening goal to a commanding position.

The late goal for Uzbekistan is recorded for the team, while Syria also added a goal in the closing moments. Across the match, Uzbekistan’s scoring came before Syria’s reply, and the named scorers’ contributions helped establish the lead that carried through to the finish.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, Goalorithm’s model gave Uzbekistan a 61.5% chance of winning, a draw 22.7%, and a Syria win 15.8%. These probabilities are estimates. The model’s most likely outcome was Uzbekistan to win, and it gave the actual result 61.5%; the model's most likely outcome happened. The forecast and the match align on the central point: the model favoured Uzbekistan to win, and Uzbekistan won.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Uzbekistan vs Syria

Thu, Oct 1 · 10:00 AM ET

Full time

4–1

Half-time 2–0

  • 27'S. Esanov1–0
  • 45'A. Mozgovoy2–0
  • 48'K. Norchaev3–0
  • 90'Uzbekistan4–0
  • 90'+3Syria4–1

The model before the game

Uzbekistan
61.5%
Draw
22.7%
Syria
15.8%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

Open the Match Center

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