Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
USA host Canada in a friendly on Tuesday, October 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET, with the match at Allianz Field. The model’s likeliest result is a Canada win; Canada arrive unbeaten in their last five, while USA are on 2 wins in a row.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives USA 26.7%, a draw 32.3% and Canada 41%; its likeliest result is a Canada win.
The model’s goals forecast is under 2.5 goals at 63.4%, with over 2.5 goals at 36.6% for the higher total. It gives both teams scoring 43.2%, and at least one side failing to score 56.8%. Expected goals are 1 for USA and 1.2 for Canada. The leading exact-score possibilities are 0-0 at 16.2%, 1-1 at 12.4% and 0-1 at 12.1%.
Form and standings
USA’s recent sequence is WWLWL, amounting to 3 wins and 2 defeats and 12 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest outing was a 4-2 home win against Chile on September 29; they are now 2 wins in a row.
Canada’s sequence is WDWDD, with 2 wins and 3 draws and 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest match was a 1-0 home win against Chile on September 26, and they are unbeaten in their last 5.