Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Ukraine host Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET. Both sides have the same points total after the opening games, while Ukraine sit above Northern Ireland in the group. The model gives Ukraine the clearest single outcome, but its forecast also leaves substantial room for a draw or an away win.
The match is at Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava. The model’s expected-goals figures and its leading scorelines frame a contest in which a narrow margin is plausible, rather than one pointing to a decisive gap between the teams.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Ukraine 47.9%, a draw 28.5% and Northern Ireland 23.6%; its likeliest result is a Ukraine win. That makes a home win the leading individual outcome in the forecast, though neither the draw nor a Northern Ireland win is ruled out by the distribution.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 61.5% and over 2.5 goals at 38.5%. It gives both teams scoring 42.7%, while at least one side fails to score in 57.3% of its projections. The expected-goals figures are Ukraine 1.4 and Northern Ireland 0.9. Together, those numbers point towards a relatively contained scoring pattern, while leaving open the possibility of both sides contributing.