Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Uganda host Congo DR in a friendly on Monday, October 5, with kick-off at 9:00 a.m. ET. Uganda arrive after beating their visitors, while Goalorithm’s model still identifies a Congo DR win as the likeliest outcome.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Congo DR win (42.8%), then a draw (33.1%), then a Uganda win (24.1%). These probabilities are estimates, but the order gives Congo DR the clearest path in the model’s view, with a draw also a substantial possibility. Uganda’s win is the least likely of the three outcomes, though it remains part of a relatively close spread rather than an overwhelming verdict.
The model’s goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 49.2%, while both teams score in 52.2% of its projections. That leaves a match where goals at both ends are plausible, but not assured; the model also gives 47.8% to at least one side failing to score. Its expected goals are Uganda 1.1 and Congo DR 1.6, pointing to a greater projected contribution from the visitors without ruling out Uganda making an impact.
The leading correct-score projections are 1-1 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.1%) and 0-0 (9.2%). The spread across those outcomes captures the uncertainty in a fixture where the model leans towards Congo DR but does not settle on one dominant scoreline.
Form and standings
Uganda’s recent results read WLWWW: 4 wins and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-0 away win against Congo DR on October 2, a win that gives this fixture a direct and recent reference point. The sequence offers evidence of a productive run, although the goals conceded show that the record has not been built on keeping every opponent out.