Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Tunisia host Mali in a friendly on Saturday, October 3 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s clearest signal is its preference for Mali, though the draw also carries substantial probability, leaving Tunisia with a less prominent place in the forecast.
The recent results offer neither side a winning run to carry into the fixture: Tunisia come off a heavy defeat, while Mali’s latest outing also ended in defeat. Their most recent meeting finished level, part of a head-to-head record that includes wins for both teams and several draws.
What the model expects
These figures are model estimates. The model gives Tunisia 18.9%, a draw 36.6% and Mali 44.6%. Its outcome order is a Mali win (44.6%), then a draw (36.6%), then a Tunisia win (18.9%), with a Mali win the likeliest result. That makes Mali the model’s leading outcome, but not one that overwhelms the draw probability.
The projected goals are 1.1 for Tunisia and 1.6 for Mali. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%; its figures for both teams to score and for at least one side to fail to score are 49.9% and 50.2%, respectively. Those projections leave room for either a match with goals at both ends or one where a side is shut out.
The leading scorelines are 1-1 at 11.4%, 0-0 at 10.5% and 0-1 at 10%. A draw appears among those outcomes alongside a Mali win, matching the broader forecast’s mix of possibilities. The projected goal totals also point to a narrow margin rather than a clear expectation of a high-scoring contest.