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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Dominican Republic: Match Analysis & Model Review

Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 Dominican Republic in the CONCACAF Nations League, Sunday, September 27: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-1 win for Dominican Republic over Trinidad and Tobago came after a match in which Trinidad and Tobago went ahead, Dominican Republic levelled before half-time, and the visitors scored again soon after the break. The result was the outcome Goalorithm’s model had identified as most likely before kickoff, with two red cards arriving late.

The final score was 1-2. The score at the interval was 1-1. Trinidad and Tobago finished with one goal, while Dominican Republic had two goals; the match produced three goals overall.

How it unfolded

Daniel Phillips put Trinidad and Tobago in front in the 37th minute, making it 1-0. Dominican Republic responded through Heinz Mörschel in the 42nd minute, bringing the score to 1-1 before the interval.

The decisive goal came in the 50th minute, when Mariano Díaz made it 1-2 for Dominican Republic. The lead changed hands once and was levelled once, with both sides having led during the match. In the 89th minute, Edison Azcona of Dominican Republic and Wayne Frederick of Trinidad and Tobago were sent off.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Trinidad and Tobago recorded 19 shots, including 6 on target. Dominican Republic registered 17 shots and 7 on target. The possession figures were 63% for Trinidad and Tobago and 37% for Dominican Republic; the corner counts were 8 and 3, respectively.

Each side’s goalkeeper made 5 saves for Trinidad and Tobago and 5 for Dominican Republic. The figures show a match with attempts and saves at both ends, while the scoreline was settled by Dominican Republic converting its goals at key moments: the equaliser before half-time and the winner shortly after the restart.

Standout performers

D. Phillips was Trinidad and Tobago’s best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. His goal gave the hosts the lead, but it was not enough to secure a result.

For Dominican Republic, M. Díaz earned a rating of 8.8, with 1 goal and 1 assist. His contribution included the goal that put the visitors ahead, and he was the best-rated player in the match.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s probabilities were estimates: Trinidad and Tobago had 31.6% to win, the draw had 21.8%, and Dominican Republic had 46.6%. The model’s most likely outcome was Dominican Republic to win, and it gave that outcome 46.6%.

The model’s assessment was borne out by the result: the model's most likely outcome happened.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Trinidad and Tobago vs Dominican Republic

Sun, Sep 27 · 9:00 PM ET · Hasely Crawford Stadium

Full time

1–2

Half-time 1–1

  • 37'Daniel Phillips1–0
  • 42'Heinz Mörschel1–1
  • 50'Mariano Díaz1–2

The model before the game

Trinidad and Tobago
31.6%
Draw
21.8%
Dominican Republic
46.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

Trinidad and TobagoStatisticDominican Republic
5saves5
19shots17
8corners3
63%possession37%
6shots on target7
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