Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Cleveland Guardians in MLB on Friday, October 16, with first pitch at 6:00 p.m. ET. Both teams have finished the regular season, and this is a postseason game.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s estimates give the Cleveland Guardians a 49% chance to win and the Tampa Bay Rays a 51% chance. The model’s likelier result is a Tampa Bay Rays win.
The model projects 3.9 runs for the Cleveland Guardians and 4 for the Tampa Bay Rays, with 7.9 in all. Its chance of a win by two runs or more is 30.7% for the Cleveland Guardians and 32.9% for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Form and standings
The Cleveland Guardians finished the regular season 85-77, with a run differential of +11: 678 runs scored and 667 allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays finished 98-64, with a run differential of +86: 736 runs scored and 650 allowed. The Tampa Bay Rays have the better record.
The Cleveland Guardians went 4-1 in their last 5 games, with 28 runs scored and 14 allowed; their most recent result was a 3-1 road loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on October 13. The sides’ recent meetings were Tampa Bay Rays 3-1 on October 13 and Cleveland Guardians 7-3 on October 12.
The Cleveland Guardians bullpen has a 3.54 ERA, while the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has a 3.99 ERA; the Cleveland Guardians bullpen has the lower ERA.