Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Switzerland host FYR Macedonia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, October 6 at 2:45 p.m. ET. Goalorithm's model points to a home-side edge, with a low away scoring projection and leading scorelines that all have FYR Macedonia failing to score. The probabilities are estimates; the model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Switzerland win (77.2%), then a draw (15.6%), then an FYR Macedonia win (7.3%).
What the model expects
The model puts expected goals at 2.2 for Switzerland and 0.4 for FYR Macedonia. That projection gives the fixture a distinct shape: Switzerland accounts for most of the expected scoring, while FYR Macedonia's projected contribution is limited. The model's likeliest result is a Switzerland win; its stated lean is Switzerland to win.
The leading scorelines are 2-0 (17.2%), 1-0 (16.5%) and 3-0 (12.4%). Each has Switzerland ahead and FYR Macedonia scoreless, so the model's central score possibilities all describe a home win to nil. They are separate likely outcomes, not a single exact-score prediction, and the model's broader goal estimates leave room for a different pattern.
On the total-goals question, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 51.8% and over 2.5 goals at 48.2%. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 28.8%, against 71.2% for at least one side failing to score; that latter figure does not mean a goalless draw. The scoring figures make a clean sheet a prominent part of the forecast, without ruling out both teams finding the net. The clearest thread in the projection is the difference between the sides' expected contributions: the model sees Switzerland as the source of most of the likely scoring, while FYR Macedonia has a smaller share. That is consistent with the scorelines it assigns the greatest likelihood, though the broader goal estimates leave more than one route through the match.