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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

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St. Kitts and Nevis 3-0 Grenada: Match Analysis & Model Review

St. Kitts and Nevis 3-0 Grenada in the CONCACAF Nations League, Monday, September 28: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

St. Kitts and Nevis beat Grenada 3-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, September 28, leading Grenada 2-0 at half-time. The scoreline reflected a clear difference in the teams’ finishing: St. Kitts and Nevis put every shot on target, while Grenada did not record a shot on target. St. Kitts and Nevis held more possession, but the match’s attacking output was modest in volume.

The result gives the match a straightforward shape in the recorded figures. St. Kitts and Nevis had the greater share of the ball and the only shots on target, and made those efforts count on the scoreboard. Grenada finished without a goal or a shot on target, so its possession share did not translate into a recorded test for the opposing goalkeeper.

The numbers

Possession was 56% for St. Kitts and Nevis and 44% for Grenada. The shot totals were 3 and 1, with 3 and 0 on target respectively. That contrast is central to the account of the match: St. Kitts and Nevis directed its attempts at goal, while Grenada did not manage one on target. The scoreboard therefore followed the direction of the recorded efforts, rather than a high volume of chances from either side.

The corner count was 1 for St. Kitts and Nevis and 0 for Grenada. Saves were 0 for St. Kitts and Nevis and 1 for Grenada. These figures add detail without changing the main pattern: the match contained relatively few recorded attempts, but the teams differed in whether those attempts reached the target. St. Kitts and Nevis had the successful attacking output; Grenada was unable to turn its share of possession into a shot on target.

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The numbers do not point to sustained pressure measured through repeated shots or corners. Instead, they show St. Kitts and Nevis taking its opportunities with accuracy and Grenada failing to register a target-bound effort. That distinction helps explain how the scoreline was achieved without suggesting a volume of attacking chances that the statistics do not show. The possession split was not overwhelming, but the difference in shots on target was absolute.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave St. Kitts and Nevis a 50.1% chance of winning, assigned 22.8% to a draw and gave Grenada a 27.1% chance. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was St. Kitts and Nevis to win, and it gave that outcome 50.1%.

The model’s assessment was borne out: the model's most likely outcome happened. The final score matched the outcome it had identified as most likely, and the match figures offer a clear account of the result. St. Kitts and Nevis had the edge in possession, recorded all of the game’s shots on target and scored; Grenada ended without a goal or a shot on target. The pre-match call and the on-field numbers point in the same direction, while the model’s probabilities remain estimates rather than certainty.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

St. Kitts and Nevis vs Grenada

Mon, Sep 28 · 8:00 PM ET · SKNFA Technical Center

Full time

3–0

Half-time 2–0

The model before the game

St. Kitts and Nevis
50.1%
Draw
22.8%
Grenada
27.1%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

St. Kitts and NevisStatisticGrenada
0saves1
3shots1
1corners0
56%possession44%
3shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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