Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: South Korea 0–0 Venezuela. Read the match analysis →
Preview
South Korea host Venezuela in a friendly on Friday, October 2 at 7:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model favours South Korea, with its outcomes ordered as a South Korea win (52.2%), then a draw (26.4%), then a Venezuela win (21.4%). Its leading exact score is level, so the model’s preference for South Korea comes alongside a forecast that leaves room for a draw.
The probabilities are estimates. Both teams arrive after defeats, and the recent results listed for each include wins as well as losses. The model’s expected-goals figures are close, giving this fixture a finely balanced shape despite its preference for the hosts.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a South Korea win. Its expected-goals estimate is South Korea 1.4 and Venezuela 1.2. The leading exact score is 1-1 (12.8%), followed by 1-0 (9.3%) and 0-0 (9.2%). Together, those score estimates cover a draw, a narrow South Korea win and a goalless game; no single exact score accounts for a large share of the forecast.
For the broader goals outlook, the model has over 2.5 goals at 48.5% and under 2.5 goals at 51.5%. It gives both teams a chance to score at 52.8%, while 47.2% is the estimate for at least one team failing to score. These are distinct views of the goal picture: the first concerns the total, while the second concerns whether both teams find the net.