Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
South Korea host Uzbekistan in a friendly on Tuesday, October 6 at 7:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives South Korea 56.1% to win, with expected goals of 2.1 for the hosts and 0.7 for the visitors. South Korea come off a defeat, while Uzbekistan arrive after a win.
What the model expects
The model gives South Korea 56.1%, a draw 21.5% and Uzbekistan 22.3%; these probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a South Korea win. The expected-goals figures are 2.1 for South Korea and 0.7 for Uzbekistan, putting the focus on whether the hosts can translate that projection into the result the model favours.
For the goals market, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 54.9% and under 2.5 goals at 45.1%. It gives both teams scoring 46.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 53.8%. The model lists 2-0 at 12.5%, 1-0 at 11.7% and 3-0 at 8.8%. The model’s lean is South Korea to win. Its listed score projections each have Uzbekistan failing to score, though the separate both-teams-to-score estimate leaves room for either outcome.
Form and standings
South Korea come into the fixture after a 4-1 home defeat to Uruguay on September 28. Across the listed run, they have 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their results, most recent first, are LWWWL.
Uzbekistan arrive after a 3-1 home win against Iran on September 24. Their listed record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded; their results, most recent first, are WLLWD. The latest result is a win, while the full sequence also contains a draw and defeats.