Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sint Maarten host St. Vincent / Grenadines in the CONCACAF Nations League on Saturday, October 3, with kick-off at 5:00 p.m. ET. The match is scheduled for FFB Stadium, Belmopan, and Goalorithm’s model gives a St. Vincent / Grenadines win at 51%.
The model’s figures are estimates. Its projections cover the result, goals and scoring by both sides, while also assigning probabilities to several exact scorelines.
What the model expects
The model gives Sint Maarten a win at 22.6%, a draw at 26.4% and a St. Vincent / Grenadines win at 51%. Its likeliest result is a St. Vincent / Grenadines win. That is the model’s central result call; the probabilities also leave room for either of the other outcomes.
For the total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 50% and under 2.5 goals at 50%. Its both-teams-to-score figure is 51.5%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 48.5%. That second estimate includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, rather than referring only to a goalless draw.
The expected-goals figures are 1 for Sint Maarten and 1.7 for St. Vincent / Grenadines. The most likely exact score listed is 0-1, at 11.6%; the model also has 1-1 at 11.1% and 1-2 at 9.1%. These are individual scoreline probabilities, alongside the broader result and goals estimates.
Team news
No team news is on file, and the line-ups have not been announced.