Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Scotland host Slovenia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, October 6, with both sides level on points after their opening game. Slovenia sit above Scotland in the group, while Goalorithm’s model gives Scotland the leading outcome but leaves a draw firmly in the picture.
The fixture is scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET. With the teams separated only by their current table positions, the model’s narrow preference for Scotland offers the clearest edge in a game where neither side is strongly favoured.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s order is a Scotland win (44.2%), then a draw (29.5%), then a Slovenia win (26.3%), making a Scotland win the likeliest result without putting it beyond reach of the alternatives.
The goals outlook is close: over 2.5 goals at 48.2%, against under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. The model expects both teams to score at 51.4%, while its probability that at least one side fails to score is 48.6%. That balance points to a match where goals at both ends are plausible, but not a foregone conclusion.
Expected goals stand at 1.5 for Scotland and 1.1 for Slovenia. The likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.7%; 0-0 at 11.3% and 1-0 at 10.5% follow. The model’s leading scoreline is therefore level, even as its overall result forecast gives Scotland the edge.
Form and standings
Scotland are 3rd in League B - Group A with 1 point from 1 game, and Slovenia are 2nd in League B - Group A with 1 point from 1 game. Slovenia sit above Scotland on the same points. Both teams have played the same number of group games, so the current positions reflect a very early snapshot rather than a settled separation.