Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Saint Martin host Bahamas in the CONCACAF Nations League on Tuesday, October 6 at 4:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model sees a strong case for the home side, while its goal projections point to a game in which Bahamas may struggle to contribute on the scoresheet.
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its clearest signal is the gap between the chances it assigns to each result: it gives Saint Martin 87.2%, a draw 6.8% and Bahamas 6%.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Saint Martin win. That is a firm direction in the forecast, though not a guarantee of how the match will unfold. The expected-goals figures are 2.9 for Saint Martin and 0.2 for Bahamas, a projection that places most of the attacking output with the hosts.
The goals outlook is more finely balanced than the result forecast. The model gives under 2.5 goals at 51.8% and over 2.5 goals at 48.2%, so its expectation of a home win does not amount to a strong call for a high-scoring game. That distinction matters: a controlled victory can fit the projection just as readily as a match with a larger total.
The model has both teams scoring at 19.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 80.4%. The latter is not a prediction of a goalless draw; it covers matches in which one team does not score, including wins to nil. In this forecast, the low expected-goals figure for Bahamas gives that possibility a clear context without ruling out a contribution from the visitors.
The leading exact-score projections are 2-0 at 17.5%, 3-0 at 16.2% and 1-0 at 13.5%. Each is a separate outcome rather than a promise of the final score. Taken together, they describe a forecast built around Saint Martin scoring and Bahamas being held to a low total, with the margin still open to variation. The model’s stated lean is Saint Martin to win.