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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Match Analysis & Model Review

Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League, Monday, September 28: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Bosnia & Herzegovina beat Romania 2-4 in the UEFA Nations League on Monday, September 28, taking control with a burst of goals before the interval. Romania found the net after the break, but Bosnia & Herzegovina’s advantage was enough to secure a 4-2 win for Bosnia & Herzegovina over Romania.

The score at half-time was 1-3. Only Bosnia & Herzegovina ever led. Romania’s goals came after the visitors had established their cushion, and Bosnia & Herzegovina restored their advantage before the interval. After the restart, the sides traded goals again, but Romania could not close the gap further.

How it unfolded

Armin Gigovic put Bosnia & Herzegovina ahead in the 12th minute, making it 0-1. Tarik Muharemovic added another for the visitors in the 19th minute, leaving Romania to chase the game.

Romania responded through Daniel Birligea, who made it 1-2 in the 28th minute. The reply did not change the half-time picture: Haris Tabaković scored for Bosnia & Herzegovina in the 40th minute, making it 1-3.

Bosnia & Herzegovina extended the margin after the break when Ermin Mahmić made it 1-4 in the 55th minute. The visitors held a three-goal lead at 1-4. Alexandru Cicâldău reduced the deficit for Romania in the 62nd minute; that was the final goal.

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The numbers

There were six goals in all. Romania had 13 shots and Bosnia & Herzegovina had 15; on target, the figures were 4 and 7 respectively. The shot totals show that both sides generated attempts, while the on-target figures record how often those efforts tested the goalkeepers.

Possession was 56% for Romania and 44% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Romania took 4 corners, with Bosnia & Herzegovina on 3. The saves count was 3 for Romania and 2 for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Together, the figures capture a match with chances at both ends and a decisive scoring return from the visitors.

Standout performers

E. Bajraktarevic was Bosnia & Herzegovina’s best-rated player, with a rating of 8.5 and 2 assists. For Romania, D. Bîrligea led the ratings at 7.5, contributing 1 goal. Their contributions stood out in a match where both sides scored, but Bosnia & Herzegovina finished with the victory.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm’s model gave Romania a 44.6% chance of winning, a draw 27.8%, and Bosnia & Herzegovina a 27.6% chance. Its most likely outcome was Romania to win, and it assigned the actual result 27.6%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Mon, Sep 28 · 2:45 PM ET · Arena Națională

Full time

2–4

Half-time 1–3

  • 12'Armin Gigovic0–1
  • 19'Tarik Muharemovic0–2
  • 28'Daniel Birligea1–2
  • 40'Haris Tabaković1–3
  • 55'Ermin Mahmić1–4
  • 62'Alexandru Cicâldău2–4

The model before the game

Romania
44.7%
Draw
27.8%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
27.6%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

RomaniaStatisticBosnia & Herzegovina
3saves2
13shots15
4corners3
56%possession44%
4shots on target7
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