Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Rep. Of Ireland host Israel in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the fixture set for Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola. The model's likeliest result is a Rep. Of Ireland win, and its goal projections point towards a low-scoring contest. That combination makes the central question whether Rep. Of Ireland can turn its forecast edge into a win without the match opening up.
What the model expects
These are estimates: a Rep. Of Ireland win (44.6%), then a draw (28.5%), then an Israel win (26.9%). The draw remains a substantial possibility in the model's view.
The goals lean is under 2.5 goals: under 2.5 goals at 67.7%, against over 2.5 goals at 32.3%. The model expects 1.5 goals for Rep. Of Ireland and 0.5 for Israel. It gives a 69.8% chance that at least one team fails to score, while both teams scoring is at 30.2%. Together, those figures point towards a contained game rather than a high-scoring exchange.
The listed likely scores are 1-0 at 19.4%, 0-0 at 16% and 2-0 at 14.4%. Each is consistent with the model's lean towards fewer goals, while the goalless draw among the leading scorelines keeps a stalemate in view. The home win remains the model's likeliest result, but its score projections suggest that any margin may be narrow.
Form and standings
Rep. Of Ireland come into the fixture after a 2-2 home draw with Austria on October 1. In their recent games, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 5 goals scored and 3 conceded; they are unbeaten in their last 2. Their latest outing ended in a draw, while their current run has not included a defeat.