Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Rennes host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 12:15 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Rennes win, while Strasbourg are on a run of 3 defeats in a row. The latest meeting was Strasbourg 0-3 Rennes (April 2026).
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Rennes 58.2%, a draw 21.3% and Strasbourg 20.5%; its outcomes from likeliest down are a Rennes win (58.2%), then a draw (21.3%), then a Strasbourg win (20.5%). Its expected-goals figures are 2.5 for Rennes and 1.6 for Strasbourg, and its lean is Rennes to win.
For the goal total, the model has over 2.5 goals at 76.1% and under 2.5 goals at 23.9%. It gives both teams scoring 72.6%, while the chance of at least one side failing to score is 27.4%. Its likeliest exact score is 2-1 at 8%; the other listed scores are 1-1 at 7.2% and 3-1 at 6.4%.
Form and standings
Rennes’ recent sequence is LWLWW, amounting to 3 wins and 2 defeats. Their latest result was a 4-3 away defeat to Paris FC on October 18. Across that spell, they have 10 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Strasbourg’s sequence reads LLLDW, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats; their latest result was a 3-1 home defeat to Paris Saint Germain on October 17. Their return across that spell is 10 goals scored and 10 conceded, and their current run is 3 defeats in a row.
In the table, Rennes sit above Strasbourg. Rennes have 13 points from 6 games, while Strasbourg have 7 points from 7 games.