Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lens host Paris FC in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 24 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The table has Paris FC sit above Lens, while the model's likeliest result is a Lens win. Both sides arrive after wins, with recent results that include wins, draws and defeats.
The figures are estimates. The model gives Lens a win 44.7%, a draw 25.6% and Paris FC a win 29.7%. Its outcome order is a Lens win (44.7%), then a Paris FC win (29.7%), then a draw (25.6%), making a Lens win the likeliest match result in its forecast.
What the model expects
The expected-goals figures are 1.5 for Lens and 1.1 for Paris FC. The model's likeliest exact scores are 1-1 (12.2%), 1-0 (11%) and 0-0 (9.1%). The scoreline estimates include a draw and home wins.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 47.7% and under 2.5 goals at 52.3%. It puts the chance of both teams scoring at 50.9%, and the chance of at least one side failing to score at 49.1%.
The bookmakers' outcomes are ordered as a Lens win (45.7%), then a Paris FC win (29%), then a draw (25.3%). On the home-win probability, the model gives a Lens win 44.7%, below the bookmakers' 45.7%.
Form and standings
Lens come into the fixture after a 3-1 away win against Estac Troyes on October 17 and are on 2 wins in a row. Their recent sequence is WWLDL; across that run they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded.