Published October 24, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Purdue Boilermakers visit the Penn State Nittany Lions in college football on Saturday, October 31, with kickoff at 4:15 p.m. ET. The model expects Penn State Nittany Lions to score 34.1 points and Purdue Boilermakers to score 21.5.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s model gives Penn State Nittany Lions an 83.2% chance to win and Purdue Boilermakers a 16.8% chance. Those probabilities are estimates, not certainties. The model’s likelier result is a Penn State Nittany Lions win; it projects 55.6 points in all. The projected margin is the Penn State Nittany Lions by 12.6 points.
That projection puts the focus on whether Penn State Nittany Lions can deliver against the Purdue Boilermakers.
Records and recent results
This season, the two sides have the same record. The Penn State Nittany Lions are 3-4 overall, with 201 points scored and 132 allowed in 7 games. The Purdue Boilermakers are 3-4 overall, with 219 points scored and 226 allowed in 7 games.
Recently, the Penn State Nittany Lions lost 21-18 on the road to the Michigan Wolverines on October 17, and before that lost 31-23 at home to the USC Trojans on October 10 and lost 34-13 on the road to the Northwestern Wildcats on October 2. The Purdue Boilermakers lost 38-26 at home to the Washington Huskies on October 16, and before that beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers 41-13 at home on October 10 and beat the Illinois Fighting Illini 24-17 on the road on October 3.