Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Portugal host Norway in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the fixture set for Estádio do Dragão, Porto. The model’s likeliest result is a Portugal win, and the sides enter the meeting from different positions in the group table.
Portugal’s latest result was a 4-2 away win against Denmark on October 1. Norway’s most recent outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Wales on October 1. Those results sit within their respective form records, and the previous meeting between the sides was Norway 1-2 Portugal (September 2026).
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s outcome estimates are a Portugal win (58.6%), then a draw (22.4%), then a Norway win (19.1%). Its expected-goals figures are Portugal 2.2 and Norway 1.2, giving Portugal the larger projected scoring return. The model’s probabilities are estimates; its clearest result call is a Portugal win.
For total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 64.6% and under 2.5 goals at 35.4%. It gives both teams scoring 61%; the chance of at least one side failing to score is 39%. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 at 9.3%, 2-1 at 9.2% and 2-0 at 8.1%. The model’s lean is Portugal to win.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Portugal win (58.2%), then a draw (20.9%), level with a Norway win (20.9%). Against the bookmakers, the model gives a Portugal win 58.6%, in line with the bookmakers' 58.2%.