Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Paris Saint Germain host Lyon in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET. The model gives Paris Saint Germain the stronger chance of winning, while the league table and recent results set the scene for a meeting between sides with goals in their recent form.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is a Paris Saint Germain win. Its outcome order is a Paris Saint Germain win (66.1%), then a draw (19.3%), then a Lyon win (14.7%). These probabilities are estimates, and the model's lean is Paris Saint Germain to win. The bookmakers' outcome order is a Paris Saint Germain win (68.2%), then a draw (17.4%), then a Lyon win (14.4%); the model gives a Paris Saint Germain win 66.1%, below the bookmakers' 68.2%.
The projected goals are 1.4 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.3 for Lyon. The most likely exact score is 1-1 (12.4%), followed by 1-0 (9.1%) and 0-0 (8.4%). The goals model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.8% and under 2.5 goals at 50.2%. It puts the chance of both teams scoring at 53.9%, while 46.1% is the chance at least one side fails to score.
Form and standings
Paris Saint Germain come into the fixture after a 3-1 away win against Strasbourg on October 17, and are on 4 wins in a row. Across 5 games, their record is 4 wins and 1 defeat, with 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their sequence, listed most recent first, is WWWWL.
Lyon most recently recorded a 2-1 home win against Nice on October 18. Their last 5 games have brought 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 10 goals scored and 4 conceded; the sequence is WLWDW. In the table, Paris Saint Germain are 1st in Ligue 1 with 14 points from 7 games, while Lyon are 5th in Ligue 1 with 11 points from 6 games. Paris Saint Germain sit above Lyon.