Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Ohio State Buckeyes visit the Iowa Hawkeyes in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET. Both teams come in off wins, and the model gives the Iowa Hawkeyes the likelier result.
What the model expects
The model’s estimates are not certainties: it gives the Iowa Hawkeyes 59.5% to win and the Ohio State Buckeyes 40.5%. The model’s likelier result is an Iowa Hawkeyes win.
The projected score is Iowa Hawkeyes 26.1, Ohio State Buckeyes 22.9, with 49 points in all. The model projects the Iowa Hawkeyes by 3.2 points.
Records and recent results
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season, with 131 points scored and 32 allowed in 4 games. The Ohio State Buckeyes are 3-1, with 180 points scored and 49 allowed in 4 games. The Iowa Hawkeyes have the better record.
The Iowa Hawkeyes beat the Michigan Wolverines 20-19 on the road on September 26, and before that beat the Northern Iowa Panthers 55-0 at home on September 19. The Iowa Hawkeyes’ latest result was a close road win, following a shutout at home.
The Ohio State Buckeyes beat the Illinois Fighting Illini 42-19 at home on September 26, and before that beat the Kent State Golden Flashes 59-3 at home on September 19. The Ohio State Buckeyes’ latest result was a home win, following another home victory.