Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Nottingham Forest host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 11:30 a.m. ET at City Ground, Nottingham. The model’s likeliest result is an Arsenal win; the sides arrive from contrasting latest results, with Nottingham Forest coming off a 3-1 away defeat to Crystal Palace on October 11 and Arsenal after a 2-1 home win against Leeds on October 10. The central question is whether Nottingham Forest can turn that recent setback into a more competitive showing against an Arsenal side whose recent record is stronger.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s figures are estimates. Its outcome order is an Arsenal win (58.9%), then a draw (25%), then a Nottingham Forest win (16.1%), and its expected-goals figures are Nottingham Forest 0.8 and Arsenal 1.9. The model’s stated lean is Arsenal to win. Taken together, those figures point towards a match in which the visitors are expected to create the greater scoring threat, while the result probabilities still leave room for a draw or a home win.
The leading correct-score possibilities are 1-1 at 13.1%, 0-0 at 11.3% and 0-2 at 11.1%. They include a level scoreline, a goalless draw and an Arsenal win without conceding. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 49.6% and under 2.5 goals at 50.4%; its assessment of both teams scoring is 47.4%, with 52.6% for at least one side failing to score. The numbers describe several plausible shapes for the contest rather than a single certain script.