Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday, October 17, with kick-off at 7:30 a.m. ET. The sides arrive level on points, but Everton sit above Chelsea in the table; Goalorithm’s model makes a Chelsea win the likeliest result, while its score projections leave room for a close contest.
The match is at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool. Everton’s recent run has been built around avoiding defeat, while Chelsea come into the fixture after an emphatic win. Those contrasting snapshots frame the preview, though the model’s expected-goals figures point to contributions from both sides.
What the model expects
The model gives Chelsea a win 42.7%, an Everton win 31.2% and a draw 26.1%. These probabilities are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Chelsea win, while expected goals are 1.3 for Everton and 1.6 for Chelsea.
The most prominent exact-score call is 1-1, at 14.4%; 0-0 follows at 10.4%, with 1-2 also among the model’s leading outcomes at 8.5%. The goals projection narrowly points toward over 2.5 goals at 53.2%, rather than under 2.5 goals at 46.8%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 56.4%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 43.6%. That latter estimate includes one-sided scores as well as a goalless draw.
Form and standings
Everton are unbeaten in their last 5, with a recent sequence of DWDDD. Across that spell they recorded 1 win and 4 draws, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-2 away draw with Hull City on October 11, following a win in the listed sequence and keeping them difficult to beat.