Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Fulham host Hull City in the Premier League on Saturday, October 17, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Fulham win, but its goals outlook points to an open game, while both sides arrive with winless runs.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Fulham win (49.3%), then a draw (25.6%), then a Hull City win (25.1%). Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 60.1% and under 2.5 goals at 39.9%, with a lean towards over 2.5 goals; it gives both teams a chance to score at 62.1%, while 37.9% covers the possibility that at least one side fails to score. That second figure does not mean the model expects a goalless draw.
Expected goals stand at 1.6 for Fulham and 1.5 for Hull City. The likeliest score is 1-1 at 13.2%, followed by 0-0 at 8.4% and 2-1 at 8.3%. The model's leading scoreline is level, even though its overall pick is a Fulham win.
Form and standings
Fulham are without a win in their last 5. Their recent sequence is LDDLL, amounting to 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-1 away defeat to Ipswich on October 10. The run has left them seeking a change in direction as they prepare to face a Hull side whose results have included several draws.
Hull City are without a win in their last 4, and their last 5 games read DLDDW. That stretch brought 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat and 6 goals scored and 6 conceded; most recently, they recorded a 2-2 home draw with Everton on October 11. The table position is also a notable part of the fixture: Hull City sit above Fulham. Fulham are 20th in Premier League with 2 points from 6 games, while Hull City are 8th in Premier League with 9 points from 6 games.