Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Norway 1–2 Portugal. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Norway host Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, September 27 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with both sides on 3 points from 1 game. Norway sit above Portugal on the same points, while the model’s likeliest result is a Norway win.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome estimates are a Norway win (37.9%), then a Portugal win (35.8%), then a draw (26.4%). The probabilities are estimates, but their shape gives a clear reading: the model has a Norway win narrowly at the front, with a Portugal win close behind and a draw also in contention. The bookmakers’ prices point to the same ordering; the model gives a Norway win 37.9%, in line with the bookmakers' 38%.
The expected-goals figures are Norway 1.5 and Portugal 1. For the total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 45.6% and under 2.5 goals at 54.4%. Its assessment of scoring at both ends is 49.1%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 50.9%; that second figure does not mean a goalless draw is expected.
The leading exact-score projections are 0-0 at 12.2%, 1-1 at 11.7% and 1-0 at 11.4%. Those possibilities span a goalless game, a level score with goals and a narrow Norway win. No single score dominates the forecast, which leaves the broad outcome probabilities as the more useful guide to the model’s view.