Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday, October 17, with both sides coming into the fixture after uneven recent results. The model gives Newcastle the likeliest outcome, while its goals figures point towards an open contest.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Newcastle win (43.7%), then an Aston Villa win (30.3%), then a draw (26%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are Newcastle 2.1 and Aston Villa 1.4, giving the hosts the greater projected scoring output without ruling out a contribution from the visitors.
The model's goals outlook is over 2.5 goals at 65.8%, against under 2.5 goals at 34.2%. It gives both teams scoring 64.7%, while 35.3% is the chance that at least one side fails to score. The model's lean is over 2.5 goals. Its likeliest exact score is 1-1 at 11.5%; next come 2-1 at 8.9% and 0-0 at 6.7%.
Form and standings
Newcastle have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats across 5 games, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their sequence, listed most recent first, is LWLDW; the latest result was a 4-1 away defeat to Coventry on October 12. That defeat gives the hosts a recent setback to respond to, while the broader run includes wins as well as dropped points.
Aston Villa have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats over 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their recent sequence is DWLDL, and they arrive after a 2-2 home draw with Brentford on October 10. They are also unbeaten in their last 2. In the table, Newcastle sit above Aston Villa; Newcastle have 8 points from 6 games, while Aston Villa have 5 points from 6 games.