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Game analysis · college football

Research workspace

New Mexico Lobos 21-16 San José State Spartans: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 21-16 win for the New Mexico Lobos over the San José State Spartans in college football, Saturday, October 31: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 31, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The New Mexico Lobos beat the San José State Spartans 21-16 in college football on Saturday, October 31. The New Mexico Lobos gained 342 yards, including 231 rushing yards, while the San José State Spartans finished with 238 total yards.

The numbers

The New Mexico Lobos had 342 total yards to the San José State Spartans’ 238; on the ground, the New Mexico Lobos had 231 yards and the San José State Spartans had 48. Through the air, the San José State Spartans had 190 net passing yards, compared with 111 for the New Mexico Lobos.

The San José State Spartans recorded 15 first downs and the New Mexico Lobos recorded 16. The San José State Spartans converted 38.5% of third downs, and the New Mexico Lobos converted 30%. Possession time was 28:33 for the San José State Spartans and 31:27 for the New Mexico Lobos. The San José State Spartans had 2 turnovers; the New Mexico Lobos had 3.

Top performers

For the San José State Spartans, Luke Weaver completed 16 of 23 passes for 190 yards, with 2 interceptions, while Jabari Bates ran for 63 yards on 22 carries and Carson Clark caught 8 passes for 91 yards. San José State Spartans defender Dylan Lee had an interception, and kicker Trajan Sinatra made 3 of 3 field goals. San José State Spartans player Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa returned an interception for a touchdown.

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Predictions
Games
Standings

For the New Mexico Lobos, Toa Fa'avae completed 9 of 14 passes for 101 yards, with a touchdown and 3 interceptions, while Kiefer Sibley ran for 102 yards on 12 carries and Cade Keith caught 2 passes for 30 yards, with a touchdown. New Mexico Lobos defender Darren Agu had 2 sacks; kicker Grant Glasgow made 0 of 1 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pregame chances were estimates: the model gave the San José State Spartans 12% to win and the New Mexico Lobos 88%. Its favorite was the New Mexico Lobos to win; the model's favorite won. Before the game, the model had the New Mexico Lobos by 15.3 points, and they won by five points, less than projected.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos

Sat, Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET

Final

16–21

The model before the game

San José State Spartans
12%
New Mexico Lobos
88%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

San José State SpartansStatisticNew Mexico Lobos
2turnovers3
15first downs16
238total yards342
48rushing yards231
190net passing yards111
28:33time of possession31:27
38.5%third-down conversion rate30%
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