Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Morocco host Ghana in a friendly on Sunday, October 4 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm's model makes Morocco the clear pick, while the recent records point to different kinds of pressure for the sides: Morocco arrive unbeaten in their last 5, and Ghana are without a win in their last 5.
The forecast gives the fixture a defined shape, but the recent results make the opening story more than a simple reading of probabilities. Morocco have been difficult to beat and productive in front of goal across their listed run; Ghana have struggled to turn their recent outings into goals or wins.
What the model expects
The model's estimates give Morocco 72%, a draw 17.1% and Ghana 10.9%. Its ordering is a Morocco win (72%), then a draw (17.1%), then a Ghana win (10.9%). That makes Morocco the side the forecast most strongly supports, rather than a match in which the model sees the outcomes as evenly distributed.
The goals projection favours over 2.5 goals at 63%, while under 2.5 goals at 37% remains part of the model's outlook. It gives both teams scoring 46.4%, and at least one side failing to score 53.6%. Those figures sit alongside an expected-goals forecast of 2.5 for Morocco and 0.7 for Ghana, pointing to a substantial share of the projected attacking output coming from the hosts.
The leading scorelines are 2-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.4%) and 3-0 (10.2%). Each has Ghana scoreless, which fits the model's lower expected-goals figure for Ghana. The over-goals projection and these individual score predictions describe different possibilities within the same forecast: the former is a broad total-goals estimate, while the scorelines identify the outcomes with the strongest individual probabilities. These are model estimates, not certainties.