Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Monaco host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 10 at 2:45 p.m. ET. Monaco sit 1st in Ligue 1 with 13 points from 5 games, while Toulouse are 13th in Ligue 1 with 5 points from 5 games. Goalorithm’s model makes a Monaco win the likeliest result, but also assigns a substantial chance to a draw and a route to victory for the visitors.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes run a Monaco win (57.1%), then a draw (23.7%), then a Toulouse win (19.2%). These are estimates; the model’s lean is Monaco to win. Its expected-goals projection is 1.9 for Monaco and 1.2 for Toulouse, giving the forecast a clear scoring contribution from each side without ruling out a lower-scoring game.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 58.4%, while under 2.5 goals at 41.6%. It gives both teams to score 58.2%, and the chance that at least one side fails to score is 41.8%. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (8.4%). Those outcomes span a draw and wins for Monaco; they offer a range of possible finishes rather than a single projected score. The model’s result ordering is a Monaco win (57.1%), then a draw (23.7%), then a Toulouse win (19.2%), while its view against the market is the model gives a Monaco win 57.1%, in line with the bookmakers' 57.2%.
Form and standings
Monaco have recorded WDWWW in their last 5 games, with 4 wins and 1 draw, 8 goals scored and 3 conceded. They are unbeaten in their last 5, and their latest outing was a 2-1 home win against Lens on September 18. That recent sequence includes a draw among a run of wins; the goal figures give the record additional context without changing the simple headline that Monaco have avoided defeat in those matches.