Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 10, with kick-off at 11:15 a.m. ET at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille. The model makes a Lille win its likeliest result, while the sides arrive with contrasting recent records and occupy different positions in the table. The forecast points towards Lille, but it also assigns a substantial chance to a draw and leaves room for a Le Havre win.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Lille win (64.9%), then a draw (21.8%), then a Le Havre win (13.4%), and its lean is Lille to win. Its expected-goals figures are Lille 1.9 and Le Havre 1.2, projecting goals for each team without settling the result in advance.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 57.5% and under 2.5 goals at 42.5% on the goals outlook. It gives both teams to score 57.5%, while at least one side failing to score is put at 42.5%. Its likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 1-0 (8.7%). Those scorelines span a draw and Lille victories, with a Lille win at the top of the outcome list.
Form and standings
Lille’s sequence across 5 games, listed most recent first, is LWWDW: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. The latest entry was a 2-1 away defeat to Nice on September 20. That defeat is the most recent result in a run that also includes victories and a draw.