Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lorient host Paris FC in Ligue 1 on Saturday, October 10 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result a Paris FC win. Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5, while Lorient are without a win in their last 2. The latest meeting was Lorient 1-1 Paris FC (April 2026).
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Paris FC win (42.4%), then a Lorient win (29.8%), then a draw (27.8%). Its goals lean is over 2.5 goals: over 2.5 goals at 55.3%, against under 2.5 goals at 44.7%. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 57.1%; its estimate for at least one side failing to score is 42.9%. These figures are estimates.
Expected goals are 1.2 for Lorient and 1.7 for Paris FC. The likeliest scorelines are 1-1 (11.6%), 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8.7%). The leading exact-score possibility is a draw, while the model's likeliest result is a Paris FC win.
Against the bookmakers, the model gives a Paris FC win 42.4%, above the bookmakers' 40.5%.
Form and standings
Lorient's recent sequence is LDWLD: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their most recent match was a 2-1 away defeat to Le Mans on September 19. Paris FC's sequence is WDWWD: 3 wins and 2 draws, with 8 goals scored and 3 conceded; their latest outing was a 2-1 home win against Strasbourg on September 19. The sides arrive on different runs: Lorient are without a win in their last 2, while Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5.