Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Moldova 1–1 Faroe Islands. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Moldova host Faroe Islands in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, September 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the visitors the likeliest result, but the forecast is close across the possible outcomes. Faroe Islands sit above Moldova in the table, while the model’s scoring outlook points towards a restrained game.
The model expects Moldova to produce 0.9 expected goals and Faroe Islands to produce 1. That sets up a contest in which the projected difference is slight, with the possibility of a low total running through the forecast. These probabilities are estimates; the numbers leave room for several different match patterns.
What the model expects
The model gives them 35.8%, against 33.1% for a Moldova win and 31.1% for a draw. Its likeliest result is a Faroe Islands win. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Faroe Islands win (35.8%), then a Moldova win (33.1%), then a draw (31.1%), with the other possibilities remaining prominent in the distribution.
On the goal total, the model assigns under 2.5 goals at 68.2% and over 2.5 goals at 31.8%. Its lean is under 2.5 goals. The model gives both teams scoring 39.4%; it assigns 60.6% to at least one side failing to score. That latter measure includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.