Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Michigan State Spartans visit the Wisconsin Badgers in college football on Saturday, October 3, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Wisconsin Badgers arrive at 3-1 overall this season, while the Michigan State Spartans are 2-2.
What the model expects
The model gives the Wisconsin Badgers 82.6% and the Michigan State Spartans 17.4%; its likelier result is a Wisconsin Badgers win. These figures are estimates, not certainties. The model projects 29.9 points for the Wisconsin Badgers and 17.6 for the Michigan State Spartans, 47.5 in all, with a projected margin of the Wisconsin Badgers by 12.3 points.
Records and recent results
The Wisconsin Badgers have 127 points scored and 80 allowed in 4 games, and the Michigan State Spartans have 88 points scored and 85 allowed in 4 games. The Wisconsin Badgers have the better record.
The Wisconsin Badgers beat the Penn State Nittany Lions 24-20 on the road on September 26, and before that beat the Eastern Michigan Eagles 54-10 at home on September 19.
The Michigan State Spartans lost 31-13 at home to the Nebraska Cornhuskers on September 26, and before that lost 27-10 on the road to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on September 19.