Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Miami Dolphins visit the Minnesota Vikings in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 4:05 p.m. ET. The model’s likelier result is a Minnesota Vikings win, though its estimates are not certainties.
What the model expects
The model gives the Minnesota Vikings 88% to win and the Miami Dolphins 12%. It projects 25.4 points for the Minnesota Vikings and 13.6 for the Miami Dolphins, with 39 in all and a projected margin of the Minnesota Vikings by 11.8 points.
Records and recent results
The Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 overall this season, with 71 points scored and 41 allowed in 3 games; the Miami Dolphins are 0-3, with 36 points scored and 86 allowed in 3 games. The Minnesota Vikings have the better record.
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-16 on the road on September 27, and before that beat the Chicago Bears 9-3 on the road on September 20. The Miami Dolphins lost 24-10 at home to the Kansas City Chiefs on September 27, and before that lost 35-13 on the road to the San Francisco 49ers on September 20. The latest results leave the Minnesota Vikings with consecutive road wins, while the Miami Dolphins come in after consecutive losses.