Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Mauritius host Djibouti in a friendly on Wednesday, September 30 at 8:00 a.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Djibouti win; its score projections include a draw and a Djibouti win. The available head-to-head record also points to Djibouti, with the most recent meeting ending Mauritius 1-3 Djibouti (June 2023).
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Djibouti win (46.6%), then a Mauritius win (31.1%), then a draw (22.3%). Djibouti leads that forecast, while a Mauritius win and a draw remain possible outcomes in the model's view. The prediction gives a clear direction without removing uncertainty from a fixture whose result could still fall either way.
For expected goals, the model has Mauritius at 1.1 and Djibouti at 1.5. Its likeliest exact-score projections are 1-1 at 11.7%, 0-0 at 11.3%, and 0-1 at 10.3%. The draw appears among those scorelines alongside a narrow Djibouti win; none of the listed projections is a Mauritius victory. These are distinct possible final scores, not a single predicted score.
On total goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. Its both-teams-to-score estimates are 51.8% for both sides scoring and 48.2% for at least one side failing to score. That latter outcome includes scores in which one team is held without a goal, not only a goalless draw. The goal estimates describe different aspects of the match: the total-goals line concerns the combined score, while the both-teams-to-score figure concerns whether each side finds the net.