Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Martinique host El Salvador in the CONCACAF Nations League on Monday, October 5 at 6:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model gives the visitors the likeliest result, but its forecast also assigns substantial probability to a draw and a home win, leaving the fixture open across all three outcomes.
The model’s estimates point to a contest where neither side has a decisive edge in the forecast. Its expected-goals figures and scoreline projections offer a more specific picture of how the match could develop, while the head-to-head record adds context without settling what to expect this time.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are an El Salvador win (37.1%), then a draw (32.5%), then a Martinique win (30.5%). It gives Martinique a 30.5% chance of winning, a draw 32.5%, and El Salvador a 37.1% chance. The model’s likeliest result is an El Salvador win, at 37.1%; that is its leading single outcome, not a forecast that rules out the alternatives.
On goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It gives both teams a 52.7% chance of scoring, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 47.3%. Those figures describe separate aspects of the model’s outlook: the total-goals projection and whether each team gets on the scoresheet.
Expected goals are Martinique 1.2 and El Salvador 1.4. The model’s likeliest scorelines are 0-1 at 10.8% and 1-1 at 10.8%, with 0-0 at 9.4%. The projections offer a range of plausible match shapes, from a narrow away win to a level score or a goalless game. None of those scorelines captures every possible outcome, but together they show the kinds of margins represented in the forecast.