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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Marseille 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus: Match Analysis & Model Review

Marseille 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 15: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Marseille finished 0-1 against Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with a 1-0 win for Olympiakos Piraeus over Marseille. Olympiakos Piraeus took the lead before half-time, and the score remained 0-1 at the break and at full-time. The match produced one goal in all.

Only Olympiakos Piraeus ever led. Marseille had 56% possession and recorded 11 shots, but could not find an equaliser. Both sides put efforts on target, while the only goal came before the interval. Olympiakos Piraeus left with the win.

How it unfolded

The decisive moment came in the 42nd minute, when Santiago Hezze scored for Olympiakos Piraeus to make it 0-1. That was the only goal, and it gave Olympiakos Piraeus the lead before the interval. Marseille did not score after the break, so the first-half advantage held through to the final whistle.

The numbers

Marseille recorded 11 shots and 5 shots on target, with 0.9 expected goals. Those figures show that Marseille generated attacking opportunities, but none became a goal. The side also won 9 corners, while Olympiakos Piraeus recorded 5 saves.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Olympiakos Piraeus finished with 9 shots, 4 on target and 0.63 expected goals. It had 1 corner. The possession split was 56% for Marseille and 44% for Olympiakos Piraeus. Marseille made 3 saves.

Standout performers

S. Hezze was Olympiakos Piraeus' best-rated player, with a rating of 8.2 and 1 goal. The goal made him central to the result: it was the match's only score and put Olympiakos Piraeus in front.

Igor Paixão was Marseille's best-rated player, receiving a rating of 7.2. That recognition came in a defeat, with Marseille unable to turn its attacking activity into a goal.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Marseille a win probability of 34.5%, a draw 27.6% and an Olympiakos Piraeus win 37.9%. These probabilities are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Olympiakos Piraeus to win, and the model gave the actual result 37.9%. The model's most likely outcome happened.

The call aligned with the result on the pitch: Olympiakos Piraeus won, with its goal scored before half-time, while Marseille finished without scoring.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Thu, Oct 15 · 3:00 PM ET · Orange Vélodrome

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–1

  • 42'Santiago Hezze0–1

The model before the game

Marseille
34.5%
Draw
27.6%
Olympiakos Piraeus
37.9%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

MarseilleStatisticOlympiakos Piraeus
3saves5
11shots9
9corners1
56%possession44%
0.9expected goals0.63
5shots on target4
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