Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Marseille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Sunday, October 25, with kick-off at 12:15 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome ordering points toward Marseille, while the teams arrive after contrasting latest results: a 5-2 away win against Angers on October 18 and a 3-1 home defeat to Auxerre on October 18.
The match is at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Marseille come into it after a win, while Le Havre’s latest outing ended in defeat. The model’s forecast, the teams’ recent form and their league positions all provide context for a fixture with plenty to assess.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Marseille win (59.4%), then a draw (21.9%), then a Le Havre win (18.7%). Its lean is Marseille to win. On goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 68.7%, with under 2.5 goals at 31.3% as the other listed outcome.
The expected-goals figures are Marseille 2.2 and Le Havre 1.5. The model gives both teams a chance of scoring at 67%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 33%. Its leading exact scores are 1-1 at 8.9%, 2-1 at 8.7% and 2-0 at 6.3%. Those scores include a draw and Marseille wins; none is a Le Havre win.
The bookmakers’ outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Marseille win (59.5%), then a draw (20.6%), then a Le Havre win (19.8%). The model gives a Marseille win 59.4%, in line with the bookmakers' 59.5%.