Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Malta host Andorra in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the model's likeliest result a Malta win. Malta's latest listed result was a 1-1 home draw with Gibraltar on October 1, and they are unbeaten in their last 2.
The fixture is at Ta'Qali National Stadium, Takali. The model expects a contest in which a Malta win leads its forecast, while a draw and an Andorra win remain possible outcomes. Its estimates are set out below, alongside the available form, standings and head-to-head record.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Malta win (55.2%), then a draw (28.3%), then an Andorra win (16.5%). Its lean is Malta to win, and its expected-goals figures are 1.5 for Malta and 0.7 for Andorra.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-0 (16%), 0-0 (13.6%) and 2-0 (12%). They give a sense of the kinds of results the model considers most plausible, with a narrow Malta win among them and a goalless draw also represented.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 62.8% and over 2.5 goals at 37.2%. It assigns 38.2% to both teams scoring and 61.8% to at least one side failing to score. The bookmakers' comparison is that the model gives a Malta win 55.2%, below the bookmakers' 56.5%.
Form and standings
Malta's listed form across 4 games is DWLL, amounting to 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats and 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Their latest entry is a 1-1 home draw with Gibraltar on October 1, and the current run is unbeaten in their last 2. That recent record gives the hosts a mix of results to carry into this fixture, with the latest match ending level.