Published September 29, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Maldives 0–6 Lebanon. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Maldives host Lebanon in a friendly on Thursday, October 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model points firmly towards Lebanon, while Maldives arrive after a heavy defeat and Lebanon come off a goalless draw. The forecast sets up a clear question for the hosts: can they respond to their latest result against a side the model expects to win?
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Lebanon win. Its outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Lebanon win (87%), then a draw (10.5%), then a Maldives win (2.6%). These probabilities are estimates. The expected-goals figures are Maldives 0.4 and Lebanon 3.1. The model’s goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 68% and under 2.5 goals at 32%. It gives both teams scoring 33.1%, while its estimate for at least one side to fail to score is 66.9%; that outcome does not require a goalless draw.
The leading correct-score possibilities are 0-3 (13.9%), 0-2 (13.9%) and 0-4 (10.8%). The bookmakers’ outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Lebanon win (91.7%), then a draw (5.4%), then a Maldives win (2.9%); the model gives a Lebanon win 87%, below the bookmakers' 91.7%.