Published September 29, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Liechtenstein host Gibraltar in a friendly on Monday, October 5 at 2:45 p.m. ET. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Gibraltar win (42.8%), then a draw (37.5%), then a Liechtenstein win (19.7%). The recent sequences offer a contrast: Liechtenstein are 5 defeats in a row, while Gibraltar are unbeaten in their last 3.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model's likeliest result is a Gibraltar win. The draw also has a substantial place in the forecast, so the model's view leaves room for the match to finish level rather than producing a Gibraltar win.
The expected-goals figures are Liechtenstein 1 and Gibraltar 1.6. The leading correct-score possibilities are 1-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%) and 0-1 (11%). They cover a level score, a goalless draw and a narrow Gibraltar win, giving a picture of possible outcomes without pointing to a single dominant scoreline.
For the goal total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 48.2% and under 2.5 goals at 51.8%. It gives 50.4% to both teams scoring and 49.6% to at least one side failing to score. The goal-total estimates sit close together, as do the two possibilities for whether both sides find the net. The model's score projections include outcomes with goals for both teams and outcomes with at least one side shut out.
Form and standings
Liechtenstein's recent sequence is LLLLL, comprising 5 defeats, with 1 goal scored and 12 conceded. Their latest outing was a 2-0 away defeat to Malta on September 27, and they are currently 5 defeats in a row. Those results provide a difficult recent backdrop for the fixture, with the goals record also showing the challenge Liechtenstein face in finding a way to score.