Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Leeds host Manchester United in the Premier League on Sunday, October 18, with kick-off at 9:00 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Leeds win, while its expected-goals projection is Leeds 1.7 and Manchester United 0.8.
The model’s figures are estimates. Its outlook gives the fixture a clear statistical shape, but the range of scorelines it identifies leaves more than one possible route through the match.
What the model expects
The model gives Leeds 40.6%, a draw 27.8% and Manchester United 31.6%. Its outcomes from likeliest down are a Leeds win (40.6%), then a Manchester United win (31.6%), then a draw (27.8%). That makes a home win its leading result, with a draw and an away win also represented in the forecast.
The goals model gives under 2.5 goals at 55.2%, against over 2.5 goals at 44.8% for a higher-scoring game. It assigns 45.1% to both teams scoring and 54.9% to at least one side failing to score.
The leading exact-score outcomes are 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.2%) and 2-0 (10.9%). The list includes a level scoreline as well as home wins, reflecting a forecast that does not rest on a single exact result.
Form and standings
Leeds have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat across their last 5 games, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-1 away defeat to Arsenal on October 10. Their recent form is LDWDD, and they are without a win in their last 2.