Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Kosovo host Austria in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, October 4 at 12:00 p.m. ET, with the visitors unbeaten in their last 3 and the hosts without a win in their last 2. Austria lead the group, while the model’s likeliest result is an Austria win. The match takes place at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina.
What the model expects
The model gives Kosovo 27.1%, a draw 27% and Austria 45.9%. These are estimates. Its outcomes from likeliest down are an Austria win (45.9%), then a Kosovo win (27.1%), then a draw (27%). Expected goals are 1.2 for Kosovo and 1.6 for Austria, setting out the model’s scoring projection for each side without making the result certain.
The goals forecast is over 2.5 goals at 52.1%, against under 2.5 goals at 47.9%. The model gives both teams a chance to score at 54.7%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 45.3%. Its leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 at 12.2%, 0-1 at 9.3% and 1-2 at 8.8%. Those scorelines offer distinct possibilities rather than a single settled script. The bookmakers’ outcomes from likeliest down are an Austria win (44.7%), then a Kosovo win (28.4%), then a draw (26.8%); the model gives an Austria win 45.9%, above the bookmakers' 44.7%.
Form and standings
Kosovo come into the fixture with the sequence DLW, a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat and 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest outing was a 0-0 away draw with Israel on October 1. They are without a win in their last 2, and a win would end that run; a draw would leave it intact.