Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET. Both teams enter unbeaten, and the model's projection puts this game close.
What the model expects
The model gives the Las Vegas Raiders 50.2% and the Kansas City Chiefs 49.8%; these are estimates, not certainties. The model's likelier result is a Las Vegas Raiders win. It projects 23.4 points for the Las Vegas Raiders and 23.3 for the Kansas City Chiefs, with 46.7 in all and a projected margin of the Las Vegas Raiders by 0.1 points.
Records and recent results
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-0 overall this season, with 88 points scored and 54 allowed in 3 games. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-0, with 88 points scored and 50 allowed in 3 games; the two sides have the same record.
The Las Vegas Raiders beat the New Orleans Saints 35-27 on the road on September 27, and before that beat the Los Angeles Chargers 26-14 on the road on September 20. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins 24-10 on the road on September 27, and before that beat the Indianapolis Colts 33-30 at home on September 20.