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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Japan 2-1 Venezuela: Match Analysis & Model Review

Japan 2-1 Venezuela in a friendly, Monday, September 28: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published September 28, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 2-1 win for Japan over Venezuela in a friendly on Monday, September 28, with the final score Japan 2-1 Venezuela after Japan and Venezuela went in level at half-time. Venezuela took the lead after the break, but Japan replied and settled the match with a penalty in stoppage time.

The scoreline reflects a game in which the lead changed hands and the sides shared the goals. A. Ueda supplied both for Japan, turning a difficult position into a late victory.

How it unfolded

The first half ended 0-0, with neither side having found a goal. K. Kelsy put Venezuela ahead in the 46th minute, making it 0-1. A. Ueda answered for Japan in the 49th minute, bringing the score to 1-1.

The decisive moment came in the 90th minute (+6): A. Ueda converted a penalty for Japan, making it 2-1. That completed a brace and delivered the final turn in a match where both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

Japan recorded 11 shots and Venezuela had 9; on target, the figures were 3 and 5. Possession was 52% for Japan and 48% for Venezuela. The corner count was 1 for Japan and 7 for Venezuela, while the saves count was 3 to 2.

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The figures show both sides registering attempts and winning corners. Japan scored two goals and Venezuela scored one goal, for three goals overall. The numbers do not erase the fact that Venezuela had been in front before Japan found its response.

Standout performers

Ayumu Seko was Japan's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.7. For Venezuela, Kevin Kelsy earned the highest rating, 8.2, and the listed contribution included 1 goal.

The scoring headline belongs to A. Ueda, whose two goals made the difference. The second goal was the penalty that decided the match, completing a personal contribution that gave Japan the late winner.

How the model called it

The probabilities are estimates. Before kick-off, the model gave Japan a win probability of 28.7%, a draw 31.2%, and a Venezuela win 40%. Its most likely outcome was Venezuela to win, with the actual result assigned 28.7%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. The model's pre-match view therefore pointed towards a Venezuela victory, while the match ended with Japan converting its late penalty to take the win.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Japan vs Venezuela

Mon, Sep 28 · 6:25 AM ET · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Full time

2–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 46'K. Kelsy0–1
  • 49'A. Ueda1–1
  • 90'+6A. Ueda (penalty)2–1

The model before the game

Japan
28.7%
Draw
31.2%
Venezuela
40%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

JapanStatisticVenezuela
3saves2
11shots9
1corners7
52%possession48%
3shots on target5
Open the Match Center

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