Published September 27, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL on Sunday, October 4, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The model makes the Jacksonville Jaguars the likelier winner, while both teams arrive with matching season records and contrasting results from their latest games.
What the model expects
The model’s figures are estimates, not certainties. It gives the Cincinnati Bengals 22.5% to win and the Jacksonville Jaguars 77.5%; its likelier result is a Jacksonville Jaguars win.
The projection has the Cincinnati Bengals scoring 18 points and the Jacksonville Jaguars scoring 25.5, for 43.5 points overall. The projected margin is the Jacksonville Jaguars by 7.5 points.
Records and recent results
The Cincinnati Bengals are 2-1 overall this season, with 80 points scored and 63 allowed in 3 games. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1, with 82 points scored and 36 allowed in 3 games; the two sides have the same record.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost 30-27 on the road to the Pittsburgh Steelers on September 27, and before that beat the Houston Texans 20-6 on the road on September 20. The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the New England Patriots 35-6 at home on September 27, and before that lost 20-13 on the road to the Denver Broncos on September 20. Those latest results put a close road loss for the Cincinnati Bengals alongside a decisive home win for the Jacksonville Jaguars, after each team had lost or won its prior game in the sequence.