Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Ivory Coast host Cameroon in a friendly on Saturday, October 3 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's outlook leans towards Ivory Coast, while the available form and recent meeting offer different angles on a fixture between familiar opponents.
What the model expects
These are estimates: the model gives Ivory Coast 51.8%, a draw 29.1% and Cameroon 19.2%. Its likeliest result is an Ivory Coast win. The forecast points to a match where Ivory Coast have the larger expected-goals figure, at 1.5 to Cameroon's 0.7, but it does not make a high-scoring game the central expectation. The model puts under 2.5 goals at 61.9% and over 2.5 goals at 38.1%.
The most probable exact score is 1-0 (15.3%), followed by 0-0 (13.9%) and 1-1 (12.4%). Those scorelines show the model's leading possibilities are all close contests. It gives both teams a goal 40.6%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 59.4%; that latter measure includes outcomes beyond a goalless draw.
The bookmakers' implied probabilities are Ivory Coast 53.4%, a draw 27.7% and Cameroon 18.9%. The market's outcome order is an Ivory Coast win (53.4%), then a draw (27.7%), then a Cameroon win (18.9%). For Ivory Coast, the model gives an Ivory Coast win 51.8%, below the bookmakers' 53.4%.
Form and standings
Ivory Coast's listed form is WWWWW, with 5 wins and 11 goals scored and 1 conceded. The sequence is most recent first, and the latest entry was a 2-0 away win against Philadelphia Union II on June 8. That run gives the preview a clear recent-results thread, though the information here covers Ivory Coast alone and offers no corresponding form line for Cameroon.