Published September 27, 2026 · Updated September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Israel 0–0 Kosovo. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Israel host Kosovo in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, October 1, with kick-off at 2:45 p.m. ET at Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen. Kosovo sit above Israel in the group, and the model identifies a Kosovo win as the likeliest outcome while leaning towards under 2.5 goals.
That gives the match a clear central question: can Kosovo turn the model’s edge into a win in a game forecast to stay relatively contained? Israel remain a possible winner in the model, and a draw also features in its outlook. The expected-goals estimates give each side a route to make an impact, without pointing to a one-sided contest.
What the model expects
The model gives Kosovo 42.6%. These are estimates. Its likeliest result is a Kosovo win. It gives Israel 29.2% and a draw 28.2%, keeping both outcomes in the picture alongside the Kosovo win.
Expected goals are 1.1 for Israel and 1.4 for Kosovo. The model’s lean is under 2.5 goals, with under 2.5 goals at 54.7% and over 2.5 goals at 45.3%. That is a measured goals outlook rather than a forecast of an open game: the model allows for goals, but its lean is towards the total staying below the line.
The model gives both teams to score 49.7%, while the probability that at least one side fails to score is 50.3%. Its likeliest scorelines are 0-0 at 12.4%, 1-1 at 12% and 0-1 at 10.8%. The set of projected scores includes a draw and a narrow Kosovo win, in keeping with the model’s view of a contest that could be decided by a small margin.